Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
Yes at 56% on 31 Oct 2026, down 23 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 25 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for North Carolina's 13th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official results from the Federal Election Commission.
As Election Day approaches on November 3, 2026, media outlets are tracking competitive congressional races and early voting across the country, with live updates and election coverage expected to continue as results come in.
The election takes place on November 3, 2026, and the market is set to close on November 4, 2026.
Sources: PolitiFact: Not all results will be known on election night. That’s normal., The New York Times: Tracking Competitive Races in the House and Senate, TV Insider: Election Night 2026: How to Watch the Midterm Results Live, Newsweek: Map Shows 13 States Where GOP Dealt New Blow in Midterm Election Races, WZZM13.com: When will we know who won the midterms?, The New York Times: Tracking the Early Vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections, The North Carolina Beat: NC Election Results 2026: Live Updates
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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31 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Democrats See Growing Potential in Western North Carolina District
The chance of a Republican win in the NC-13 House seat declined after reporting highlighted growing Democratic confidence in swinging a Western North Carolina district. Additionally, the Republican campaign aired its first television advertisement in weeks around the same time.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
NC-13 Republican Odds Drop Following Campaign Committee Fund Release
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released the FAFO Fund to further expand the House battlefield. This development relates to the competitive dynamics of the congressional district.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “NC-13 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 56%, which means they saw about a 56 in 100 chance. That was down 23 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 70% to 60%: Democrats See Growing Potential in Western North Carolina District. The chance of a Republican win in the NC-13 House seat declined after reporting highlighted growing Democratic confidence in swinging a Western North Carolina district. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).