Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 1% on 4 Nov 2026, down 57 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 30 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Nevada's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official Federal Election Commission results.
As the midterm elections conclude, early results and live updates indicate a strong performance for Democrats in Nevada, including a blue wave that swept several races. Reports note that Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson flipped a Northern Nevada House seat during the election.
The 2026 midterm elections took place on November 3, 2026. Key coverage highlights other prominent Nevada races alongside the U.S. House results, such as the gubernatorial contest between Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo.
Sources: The Nevada Independent: Nevada 2026 election live updates: Results expected soon in Nevada, KLAS 8 News Now: Real-time results: Nevada’s 2026 election, The Nevada Independent: Live updates: Nevada's 2026 election results, KRXI2: ELECTION 2026: Lombardo vs Ford for governor, Flippo vs Benitez-Thompson for Congress, Las Vegas Review-Journal: Democrats win 3 Nevada House races, lead in bid to flip GOP-held seat, Nevada Current: A harsh election for Nevada Republicans: More results, The Nevada Independent: Teresa Benitez-Thompson flips Northern Nevada House seat for first time in blue wave, Reno Gazette Journal: Nevada election's blue wave sweeps in Ford, maybe Benitez-Thompson
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
30 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Other markets in “NV-02 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 57 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).