Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 1% on 4 Nov 2026, down 40 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 4 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party will win the NY-17 House seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections, which took place on November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official Federal Election Commission results.
Following the election, reports indicate that incumbent Republican Representative Mike Lawler has lost his seat to Democratic challenger Cait Conley in the tightly contested Hudson Valley district. Concessions have been made by Lawler, and major outlets have called the race for Conley.
Sources: New York Daily News: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler loses to Democratic challenger Cait Conley in NY-17, Spectrum News: Cait Conley unseats Mike Lawler in tightly contested Hudson Valley House race, New York Post: GOP Rep. Mike Lawler concedes to Cait Conley in hotly contested NY House race, CBS News: Lawler concedes to Conley in NY-17 race | 2026 election results, The New York Times: Mike Lawler Concedes to Challenger Cait Conley in New York House Swing District
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Other markets in “NY-17 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 40 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).