Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 94% on 4 Nov 2026, up 38 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 22 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House seat for Virginia's 5th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate according to credible reporting or official results from the Federal Election Commission.
As of November 4, 2026, following the November 3 midterm elections, the race in Virginia's 5th District remains contested and may take days to officially call. Republican candidate McGuire has claimed and declared victory, while Democratic challenger Perriello has urged caution and described the tight race as heading into overtime.
The primary candidates in this closely watched contest are McGuire and Perriello. While national reporting indicates that Democrats have made sweeping gains in other races, local coverage highlights that Virginia's 5th District remains a tight contest with a slim margin between the candidates.
Sources: cbs19news.com: McGuire claims victory in 5th, but Perriello hopeful, cbs19news.com: Coleman: 5th District race could take days to call, Cville Right Now: McGuire declares victory in 5th, while Perriello says ‘Welcome to overtime’, The Daily Progress: McGuire holds to slim victory over Perriello in Virginia's 5th District, WTVR.com: McGuire declares victory in Virginia's 5th House District; but Perriello says it's too close to call
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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22 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Other markets in “VA-05 House Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 94%, which means they saw about a 94 in 100 chance. That was up 38 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).