Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Yes at 76% on 28 Oct 2026, down 4 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Republican nominee will win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. It will resolve based on a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or otherwise by official certification.
With just a week remaining before the election, Republican candidate Byron Donalds and Democratic candidate David Jolly are making final pushes to encourage voter turnout and expand their campaign maps across the state.
Recent polls show a close race, with final St. Pete Polls indicating Byron Donalds leading David Jolly 48% to 46% as candidates rally voters in areas like Tallahassee and the Panhandle.
Sources: Spectrum News 13: Florida's gubernatorial candidates issue call to action — vote, Tallahassee Democrat: 'Florida is red': In blue Tallahassee, Byron Donalds seeks votes, Tampa Bay 28: Florida governor race: Voters press Byron Donalds, David Jolly on insurance, affordability, WCTV: Gubernatorial candidates hold rallies in Tallahassee, push people to the polls, State Affairs Pro: Donalds, Jolly Push Voter Turnout in Gubernatorial Race, WFLA: Florida governor’s race: seven days to decide, Politico: Florida gubernatorial hopefuls seek to expand the campaigning map, Tallahassee Democrat: David Jolly's Panhandle strategy to pull off upset for Florida governor, Florida Politics: Final St. Pete Polls: Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 48% to 46%, as long as Republicans show up
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 76%, which means they saw about a 76 in 100 chance. That was down 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.