Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Yes at 7% on 1 Nov 2026, down 7 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican candidate will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. It will resolve based on the official winner as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or through official certification if those sources do not all agree.
With the election approaching in early November 2026, recent news highlights the final stretch of the campaign between the candidates. Recent coverage points to differing stances on key voter issues and campaign strategies as the state heads toward the polls.
Sources: Star Tribune: Minnesota election results 2026, 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS: Free Air Time: US Senate candidate Michele Tafoya, Pioneer Press: Where does Senate race between Flanagan, Tafoya stand days before election?, Star Tribune: Why the blue wave could turn out to be a purple ripple in Minnesota, Star Tribune: Where Flanagan and Tafoya stand on key issues in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race, NBC News: Minnesota Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results: Tafoya, Craig, Flanagan and More, KTTC | Rochester, MN: Flanagan, Tafoya name different top voter issues in Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Fox News: Minnesota GOP Senate nominee campaigns on fraud crackdown ahead of Election Day
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Minnesota Senate Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026”?
On 1 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 7%, which means they saw about a 7 in 100 chance. That was down 7 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.