Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 4% on 3 Nov 2026, down 5 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican nominee will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. It will resolve based on the official winner called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or by official certification if those sources do not agree.
As voters cast their ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, live results trackers and news outlets are following closely contested Senate races across the country to determine which party will control Congress.
The New Hampshire Senate race features a matchup between Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu as voters weigh in on the closely watched contest.
Sources: PBS: Live 2026 Midterm Elections, The Conversation: US midterm elections: live results tracker, New Hampshire Union Leader: When will we know who controls Congress? It could be a while, NBC News: Senate battlegrounds polls: 2026 midterms, NBC News: Midterm Elections 2026: Congress Polls, Charts and More, The Economist: US Senate 2026: live results, Boston.com: 2026 live election results: U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, The Guardian: Midterm elections 2026: what time do the polls close today?, WMUR: Closely watched US Senate race comes to end as voters weigh in, USA Today: From Florida to Alaska, the 14 Senate races that will decide control, WQAD: 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election results | Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “New Hampshire Senate Election Winner”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026”?
On 3 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 4%, which means they saw about a 4 in 100 chance. That was down 5 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.