Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 48% on 7 Nov 2026, down 8 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 20 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the UK's annual inflation rate for the 12-month period ending December 2026 will land between 3.5% and 3.9%. The market resolves based on the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which is scheduled for January 20, 2027.
Economic news indicates that the Bank of England recently raised its interest rate to 4% in response to mounting inflation risks and external pressures such as the conflict involving Iran. Following this move, central bank forecasts suggest inflation could head toward 5% next year, while analysts weigh the possibility of further rate hikes early in 2027.
Sources: inkl: Bank of England Raises Interest Rate to 4% in First Hike Since 2023 as Iran War Fuels Inflation, This is Money: Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%, Fibre2Fashion: Bank of England raises interest rate to 4% as inflation risks mount, Yahoo Finance UK: Analysts expect one more BoE rate hike, likely Feb, after 4% move, CryptoSlate: Bank of England raises rates to 4% as it forecasts inflation near 5% next year
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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20 Jan 2027
December 2026 ONS Inflation Report
The Office for National Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index monthly report for December 2026, which will directly determine whether the annual inflation rate falls between 3.5% and 3.9%.
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Expected in February 2027
Potential Bank of England Rate Hike
Analysts anticipate that the Bank of England could implement one more interest rate hike in early 2027 following its move to 4%, which could influence economic growth and price pressures heading into the final months of 2026.
Source: Yahoo Finance UK: Analysts expect one more BoE rate hike, likely Feb, after 4% move
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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7 Nov 2026
UK Inflation Prediction Market Probability Falls
The chance of UK inflation landing between 3.5% and 3.9% in December 2026 dropped after recent financial updates regarding interest rates and fiscal policy. However, none of the provided articles specifically explain the downward shift in the prediction market during this exact timeframe. No matching news was found to confirm a direct cause for the move.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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20 Oct 2026
UK Inflation Reaches 11-Month High
The chance of inflation finishing between 3.5% and 3.9% dropped after the UK inflation rate hit an 11-month high. This report suggests consumer prices are rising faster than previously anticipated, shifting market expectations away from the target range.
Sources: TradingView: UK Inflation Rate Hits 11-Month High
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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20 Oct 2026
UK Inflation Reaches 11-Month High
The chance of UK inflation falling in the specified range dropped after reports that the UK inflation rate hit an 11-month high. This new economic data prompted discussions on interest rates and mortgage products.
Sources: TradingView: UK Inflation Rate Hits 11-Month High, The Times: Decision on interest rates has just been made a lot easier
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%”?
On 7 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 48%, which means they saw about a 48 in 100 chance. That was down 8 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 7 Nov 2026, from 55% to 43%: UK Inflation Prediction Market Probability Falls. The chance of UK inflation landing between 3.5% and 3.9% in December 2026 dropped after recent financial updates regarding interest rates and fiscal policy. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: December 2026 ONS Inflation Report (20 Jan 2027); Potential Bank of England Rate Hike. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, both held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 21 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar