Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 20% on 7 Nov 2026, up 17 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 5 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United States economy will be in a soft landing at the end of 2026. The market will resolve based on the official December 2026 unemployment rate and inflation rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It resolves to a soft landing if the unemployment rate is below 5.0% and the inflation rate is below 3.5%, while higher rates will lead to a resolution of stagflation.
Recent reports show that the US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts by a wide margin and bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected labor market growth has reignited discussions surrounding a potential economic soft landing, though it has also increased bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Sources: Kitco: Gold prices see some selling pressure as US economy created 165k in October, bloomingbit: US October Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 165,000, Beating Forecast by Wide Margin, Firstpost: US adds 165,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%, 富途牛牛: Nonfarm payrolls surged by 165,000, far exceeding expectations, reigniting the narrative of a U.S. economic "soft landing"? Mechanical selling pressure fails to halt the rebound momentum in AI and technology sectors following the sharp decline., TradingView: ETFs to Focus on Post-US Mid-Term Election Results, ABC11 News: US employers added a surprising 165,000 jobs in October; unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, Blockonomi: US Payroll Revisions Boost December Rate-Hike Bets, Invezz: US adds 165,000 jobs in October, crushing forecasts as Dec rate hike bets grow, BNN Bloomberg: U.S. employers added a surprising 165,000 jobs in October; unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, Equiti Global: Fed over-tightening: Could high yields trigger a US recession?, The Economic Times: Federal Reserve rate hike bets strengthen as US jobs growth beats estimates, Reuters: Fed policymakers consider rate hike after strong jobs report, Simply Wall St: 3 US Stocks Worth Watching If A Soft Landing Keeps Holding, The Economic Times: Nasdaq rebounds but posts fourth straight weekly decline, www.intelligentinvestor.com.au: Weekend Briefing, Edition 43, 2026: A Recession by Any Other Name
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
-
Before December 31, 2026
Federal Reserve Rate Decisions
Federal Reserve policymakers considering potential interest rate hikes following stronger-than-expected October jobs data could impact economic growth and push the market away from a soft landing.
Source: Invezz: US adds 165,000 jobs in October, crushing forecasts as Dec rate hike bets grow, The Economic Times: Federal Reserve rate hike bets strengthen as US jobs growth beats estimates, Reuters: Fed policymakers consider rate hike after strong jobs report
-
By January 31, 2027
December 2026 Inflation and Unemployment Data Release
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the December 2026 Consumer Price Index and employment situation figures, which will directly determine whether the market resolves to a soft landing or stagflation.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
-
5 Nov 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Raises Questions on Inflation and Jobs
The chance of a soft landing increased following a report discussing what a US-Iran ceasefire could mean for inflation and jobs. This news directly relates to the economic factors determining whether the US economy achieves a soft landing.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US economic state at the end of 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026”?
On 7 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 20%, which means they saw about a 20 in 100 chance. That was up 17 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 5 Nov 2026, from 3% to 13%: US-Iran Ceasefire Raises Questions on Inflation and Jobs. The chance of a soft landing increased following a report discussing what a US-Iran ceasefire could mean for inflation and jobs. This news directly relates to the economic factors determining whether the US economy achieves a soft landing. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions; December 2026 Inflation and Unemployment Data Release. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Feb 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.