Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes at 20% on 29 Oct 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether there will be no change in Federal Reserve interest rates following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. It will resolve based on the official FOMC statement released on December 8-9, 2026, determining the change in basis points for the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
Following the Federal Reserve meeting ending in late October 2026, central bank rate-setters held interest rates steady as inflation continued to run hot. This decision left the rate path murky and sparked varied investor reactions, with some analysts even beginning to brace for potential future rate hikes or cuts.
The upcoming resolution depends directly on the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 8-9, 2026. Key factors influencing the decision include ongoing economic strength, elevated inflation levels, and how policymakers navigate monetary policy moving forward.
Sources: The Economist: America’s rate-setters hold steady, Admirals: Fed Rate Decision: Hawkish Hold at 3.75%-4% in 10-2 Vote, The Washington Post: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, The National: US Fed holds interest rates steady as inflation runs hot, The New York Times: Fed Meeting Live Updates: Interest Rates Hold Steady Despite 'Elevated' Inflation, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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9 Dec 2026
FOMC December Meeting Conclusion
The Federal Open Market Committee will release its official statement on December 9, 2026, determining any change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate and resolving this market.
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Before December 2026 meeting
Upcoming Economic Data Releases
Future inflation and employment reports prior to the December meeting could shift market expectations regarding whether the Fed will maintain or adjust interest rates.
Source: Reuters: Fed highlights economic strength but muddies outlook for Treasuries, Axios: Fed leaves rates steady as governor Lisa Cook dissents, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027
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Before December 2026 meeting
Federal Reserve Official Statements
Statements and speeches by Federal Reserve officials regarding economic strength and policy outlook may influence the probability of a rate pause.
Source: Reuters: Fed highlights economic strength but muddies outlook for Treasuries, Axios: Fed leaves rates steady as governor Lisa Cook dissents, DW.com: Why the US central bank chose to keep interest rates steady
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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2 Oct 2026
Fed Officials Suggest Caution on Rate Moves
The chance of no change in Fed interest rates dropped following reports that Federal Reserve officials believe the central bank may need more time to weigh its next monetary policy move. Comments from Fed officials and discussions surrounding recent economic data contributed to shifting expectations for future rate decisions.
Sources: Bloomberg: Jefferson Says Fed May Need More Time to Weigh Next Move, WSJ: Another Fed Official Suggests Next Rate Increase Can Wait, Reuters: Fed's Hammack tells PBS there's still time to weigh next monetary policy move
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Fed Decision in December?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 20%, which means they saw about a 20 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 2 Oct 2026, from 32% to 20%: Fed Officials Suggest Caution on Rate Moves. The chance of no change in Fed interest rates dropped following reports that Federal Reserve officials believe the central bank may need more time to weigh its next monetary policy move. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: FOMC December Meeting Conclusion (9 Dec 2026); Upcoming Economic Data Releases; Federal Reserve Official Statements. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.