Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
Yes at 67% on 29 Oct 2026, up 7 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 5 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will remain unchanged following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in January 2027. It resolves based on the official FOMC statement released after the January 26-27 meeting, tracking any change in basis points compared to the prior rate level.
The Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.00 percent amid elevated inflation. Following this decision, analysts and global markets are closely monitoring how future central bank policies will unfold heading into early 2027.
Key factors influencing the outlook include persistent inflation trends and subsequent monetary policy announcements. The resolution will depend strictly on the official calendar and statements published by the Federal Reserve for its January 2027 meetings.
Sources: NewsCord: Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Ahead of November 3 Midterm Elections: how 11 outlets framed it, The New York Times: Fed Meeting Live Updates: Interest Rates Hold Steady Despite 'Elevated' Inflation, Times Kuwait: Fed holds interest rates steady at 3.75-4.00 pct amid elevated inflation
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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26 Jan 2027
FOMC January Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee holds a scheduled meeting on January 26-27, 2027, where a decision on the federal funds rate will be finalized and published.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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14 Oct 2026
Inflation Report Drives Rising Rate Expectations
The chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting dropped following a hot September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The inflation data sent rate-hike bets soaring, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adjust rates.
Sources: Kalshi News: October Fed rate hike odds jump to 33% after inflation report, Virginia Business: Hot September CPI sends rate-hike bets soaring, MarketWatch: What to expect at the next Fed meeting now that rate-hike odds are rising
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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5 Oct 2026
Fed Rate Expectations Shift
The chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting decreased following reports discussing potential rate hikes and forecasts through 2027. Meanwhile, other commentary noted that softer jobs data could still strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve pause.
Sources: اقتصاد آنلاین: Three Fed Rate Hikes Seen Through 2027, Seeking Alpha: Softer Jobs Data Strengthen The Case For A Fed Pause, Moneycontrol.com: Gold may rebound in 2027 if Fed's rate path becomes less aggressive: HSBC
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Fed Decision in January?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 67%, which means they saw about a 67 in 100 chance. That was up 7 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 14 Oct 2026, from 66% to 55%: Inflation Report Drives Rising Rate Expectations. The chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting dropped following a hot September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The inflation data sent rate-hike bets soaring, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adjust rates. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: FOMC January Meeting (26 Jan 2027). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.