Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 2% on 7 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Donald Trump will acquire Greenland for the United States before 2027. It will resolve to "Yes" if the US officially announces by December 31, 2026, that Greenland will come under US sovereignty, with specific official agreements or actions required rather than mere social media posts.
Recent reports indicate that Greenland recently reached a deal with Denmark and the US to bolster security, which the Greenland Parliament ratified to allow two new US bases and an expanded American military presence. Following this landmark security deal, plans were also announced to build a $32 million US consulate in Greenland, though Trump has maintained that the US will take action regarding the territory whether they like it or not.
Sources: Heraldo USA: Greenland Reaches Deal With Denmark and Trump to Bolster Security, NewsCord: Greenland Parliament Ratifies US-Denmark Security Deal, Clearing Two New U.S. Bases: how 12 outlets framed it, The New Voice of Ukraine: Greenland ratifies U.S. security deal expanding American military presence, Heartlander News: Greenland approves 2 new US military bases, Trump’s golden dome missile system, Vision Times: Greenland Approves Military Deal With US and Denmark, Ensuring Expanded American Presence in Arctic, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Trump says US will do something on Greenland 'whether they like it or not', Daily Express US: Trump plans to build $32m consulate in Greenland after landmark security deal
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027”?
On 7 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.