Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Yes at 2% on 1 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Ukraine will recapture any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows qualifying shading, such as claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives, persisting through the next update cycle, or if Ukraine takes control through a negotiated settlement.
Recent news highlights ongoing tensions in occupied Crimea, where reports indicate that children in schools are being taught to operate combat drones and assault rifles. Meanwhile, recent ceasefires and evacuations have focused on areas like Oleshky rather than direct territorial shifts within Crimea.
The resolution deadline for this market is December 31, 2026, with final market closure set for January 1, 2027. Tracking relies on the ISW map updates and official assessments regarding control of the peninsula.
Sources: Українська правда: Russians teach children to operate drones and fire assault rifles in occupied Crimea – Ukrainian intelligence, UA.NEWS: In Crimea, children as young as seven are taught to operate combat drones, Al Jazeera: Oleshky evacuees leave for Russia as ceasefire holds, DW.com: Ukraine: Oleshky residents evacuate war-ravaged city, Reuters: Explainer: Key questions around the Russian and Ukrainian evacuation of Oleshky, Institute for the Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30, 2026, NBC News: Civilians from war-ravaged Oleshky arrive in Belarus during Melania Trump-brokered ceasefire, The Moscow Times: Oleshky Evacuees Arrive in Ukraine, London Business News: From Kalashnikov lessons to combat drones, Russia is turning Crimean schools into military training grounds, Institute for the Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31, 2026
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026”?
On 1 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.