Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Yes at 21% on 29 Oct 2026, up 3 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Ulf Kristersson will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden following the parliamentary elections held in September 2026. The market resolves based on official information indicating which individual officially assumes office as the next Prime Minister, excluding interim or caretaker roles.
Following the election, Sweden has experienced political gridlock and continued without a new government while finance ministers prepared caretaker budgets. Recent developments indicate that the parliamentary speaker has picked the Centre Party leader, Elisabeth Tand Ringqvist, as the next prime minister candidate.
The Swedish parliament is scheduled to vote on November 3, 2026, on whether to make the Centre Party leader prime minister. To resolve successfully, the designated individual must officially assume office by June 30, 2027.
Sources: The Local Sweden: Swedish finance minister prepares caretaker budget stripped of campaign promises, The Local Sweden: Swedish parliamentary speaker picks Centre Party leader as next PM candidate, Reuters: Swedish parliament to vote on Centre Party leader as prime minister despite gridlock, Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS): Sweden MPs to vote next week on whether to make Centre Party leader PM: speaker jll/giv, Anadolu Ajansı: Sweden's Center Party leader nominated for prime minister as political deadlock continues, Слободен печат: The Swedish parliament has now turned its attention to Elisabeth Tand Ringqvist of the Center Party, who will vote on November 3 to become the new prime minister.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Center Party Leader Nominated for Swedish Prime Minister
The probability of Ulf Kristersson becoming the next Prime Minister decreased after news reports emerged that the Swedish parliamentary speaker nominated the Centre Party leader as the next prime minister candidate. Articles noted that the Swedish parliament is set to vote on this nomination despite political gridlock.
Sources: The Local Sweden: Swedish parliamentary speaker picks Centre Party leader as next PM candidate, Reuters: Swedish parliament to vote on Centre Party leader as prime minister despite gridlock, Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS): Sweden MPs to vote next week on whether to make Centre Party leader PM: speaker jll/giv, Anadolu Ajansı: Sweden's Center Party leader nominated for prime minister as political deadlock continues, UA.NEWS: Center Party leader to be nominated for Swedish prime minister — Anadolu Agency
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Next Prime Minister of Sweden”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 21%, which means they saw about a 21 in 100 chance. That was up 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 24% to 14%: Center Party Leader Nominated for Swedish Prime Minister. The probability of Ulf Kristersson becoming the next Prime Minister decreased after news reports emerged that the Swedish parliamentary speaker nominated the Centre Party leader as the next prime minister candidate. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.