Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Yes at 100% on 29 Oct 2026, up 35 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United States GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 was greater than 3.0%. The market resolves based on the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29, 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affect the final resolution.
The advance reading released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29, 2026, shows that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, surpassing the 3.2% growth that economists had generally expected. This acceleration in economic growth was driven by factors such as consumer spending and business investment.
The key figures come from the official advance estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29, 2026, which reported the annualized real GDP growth rate at 3.4%.
Sources: FXStreet: United States economy grows 3.4% in third quarter vs. 3.2% expected, CNBC: Third-quarter U.S. GDP increases a better-than-expected 3.4% as September inflation accelerates, WSJ: U.S. Economy Picked Up Speed, With GDP at 3.4% Rate in Third Quarter, Firstpost: US GDP growth accelerates to 3.4% in Q3 2026 as consumer spending, investment rise, Seeking Alpha: U.S. GDP grows more than estimated in Q3, says BEA's advance reading, The New York Times: U.S. G.D.P. Increased in Third Quarter, Simply Wall St: US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Dip As Key PCE And GDP Loom, Action Forex: US GDP Accelerates to 3.4% as Consumer Spending and Investment Drive Growth, Benzinga: US Economy Grew 3.4% in the Third Quarter, Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Matches Forecasts, Investing.com South Africa: U.S. GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations, Boosts Economic Outlook By Investing.com, UA.NEWS: US GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter — CNBC, Quartz: U.S. growth accelerated in summer as inflation stayed elevated, Reuters: US economic growth accelerates in third quarter, CNBC TV18: US GDP expands 3.4% in Q3 as consumers and AI fuel growth, Pluang: US inflation rises in September; economy grows faster than expected in Q3
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
US Trade Deficit Widens Before GDP Report
The prediction market for US Q3 2026 GDP growth shifted downward following news of a wider US trade deficit. TradingView reported that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q3 GDP growth dropped from 3.5% to 3.4% due to the wider trade deficit and inventories data.
Sources: Newsmax: US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens in September, TradingView: US ATLANTA FED GDPNOW MODEL ESTIMATES US Q3 GDP GROWTH RATE AT 3.4%, DOWN FROM 3.5% LAST WEEK AFTER LATEST WIDER TRADE DEFICIT, INVENTORIES DATA
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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15 Oct 2026
Atlanta Fed Estimates US Q3 GDP Growth at 3.6%
The chance of US GDP growth exceeding 3.0% in Q3 2026 rose after the Atlanta Fed left its US Q3 GDP Nowcast estimate unrevised at a 3.6% gain. This strong growth estimate supports the likelihood that the upcoming economic figures will surpass the 3.0% threshold.
Sources: marketscreener.com: Atlanta Fed US Q3 GDP Nowcast Estimate Unrevised at 3.6% Gain
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
US Q3 GDP Growth Estimate Rises to 2.5%
The chance of US GDP growth exceeding 3.0% in Q3 2026 decreased after new economic forecasts were released. Specifically, the US NY Fed Nowcast staff estimate placed the US Q3 GDP growth rate at 2.5%, which is below the 3.0% threshold.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 100%, which means they saw about a 100 in 100 chance. That was up 35 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 66% to 50%: US Trade Deficit Widens Before GDP Report. The prediction market for US Q3 2026 GDP growth shifted downward following news of a wider US trade deficit. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.