Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?
Yes at 32% on 30 Oct 2026, down 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 1 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the US dollar will reach at least 2.8 million Iranian rials on October 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the finalized free-market exchange rate published on Bonbast for that date.
Recent reports indicate that the US dollar has been trading up against the Iranian rial as the currency faces pressure from reduced oil exports, hard currency shortages, and intensified US sanctions on Iran-linked crypto assets.
Sources: Traders Union: US Dollar vs Iranian Rial trades up after prices hold above key moving averages, Traders Union: US Dollar vs Iranian Rial trades up as US Treasury intensifies sanctions on Iran-linked crypto assets, Traders Union: US dollar to Iranian Rial rate faces reduced oil exports and hard currency pressure: USD/IRR gains momentum
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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30 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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18 Oct 2026
Iranian Rial Exchange Rates Released
Iran released currency exchange rates for October 18, which may have impacted market expectations for the end of the month. The chances of the US dollar reaching at least 2.8 million Iranian rials on October 31 decreased following this data release.
Sources: Trend News Agency: Iran releases currency exchange rates for October 18
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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17 Oct 2026
USD Falls Against Iranian Rials Amid Middle East Escalation
The chance of the USD reaching at least 2.8 million Iranian rials decreased as oil prices surged 4 percent and Brent crude hit $110 due to ongoing attacks involving Iran. Reports also noted that Iran's financial crisis is deepening as Tehran tightens its grip.
Sources: National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI: Tehran Tightens Its Grip as Iran’s Financial Crisis Deepens, FXEmpire: Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Soars 4% As Traders Prepare For Escalation In The Middle East, The Economic Times: Brent crude oil prices hit $110 for first time since May as Iran attacks continue, Ukraine eyes Russia ene
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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1 Oct 2026
New Sanctions and Currency Crash Drive Prediction Market
The chance of the US dollar reaching at least 2.8 million Iranian rials surged following reports that the US targeted Iran's auto, rail, and metals sectors in a new sanctions blitz. Additionally, articles highlighted that Iran faces potential economic collapse as its currency crashes and oil exports halt amid sanctions and dwindling cash reserves.
Sources: Iran International: US targets Iran auto, rail and metals sectors in new sanctions blitz, Pluang: Iran faces economic collapse as currency crashes and oil exports halt amid sanctions and dwindling cash reserves.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 32%, which means they saw about a 32 in 100 chance. That was down 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 18 Oct 2026, from 46% to 22%: Iranian Rial Exchange Rates Released. Iran released currency exchange rates for October 18, which may have impacted market expectations for the end of the month. The chances of the US dollar reaching at least 2.8 million Iranian rials on October 31 decreased following this data release. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, all 3 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for October 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for October 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.