Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?
Yes at 59% on 31 Oct 2026, up 18 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 21 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the political campaign of Vivek Ramaswamy will pull its controversial television advertisement featuring the mother of opponent Amy Acton before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to "Yes" if the campaign officially announces it has stopped airing the ad, or if credible reporting confirms the ad has been pulled from the airwaves.
Multiple news outlets reported on October 30, 2026, that the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign had pulled the incendiary advertisement off the air following reports of a drop in poll numbers. Outlets including the New York Post, Cleveland.com, The Independent, and The New York Sun confirmed the withdrawal of the spot just days before the midterm elections.
Sources: New York Post: Vivek Ramaswamy pulls controversial attack ad featuring rival’s estranged mom after reported poll drop, Cleveland.com: Ramaswamy pulls incendiary ad with Acton’s mother off the air, The Independent: Vivek Ramaswamy pulls ad attacking Amy Acton just days before midterms, The New York Sun: Ramaswamy Pulls Divisive Ad Featuring His Democratic Opponent’s Mother as Polls Indicate It Backfired
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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30 Oct 2026
Vivek Ramaswamy Pulls Controversial Campaign Ad
The probability of the market increased after reports emerged that Vivek Ramaswamy pulled his campaign advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother. Multiple news outlets confirmed that the controversial ad was stopped following intense public backlash and condemnation.
Sources: Daily Kos: Ramaswamy bails on sick ad about Acton, News-Talk 1480 WHBC: Ramaswamy: ‘Mom’ Ad is Done, The New York Sun: Ramaswamy Pulls Divisive Ad Featuring His Democratic Opponent’s Mother as Polls Indicate It Backfired, Cleveland.com: Vivek Ramaswamy kills his vile ad as the biotech industry condemns him for it: Today in Ohio, Cleveland.com: Ramaswamy pulls ad but offers no apology to Acton, NewsOne: Vivek Ramaswamy Pulls Attack Ad With Amy Acton’s Mother, News 5 Cleveland WEWS: Voters say ‘decency’ is on the ballot as Ramaswamy pulls controversial ad
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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30 Oct 2026
Vivek Ramaswamy pulls controversial Amy Acton ad
The market shifted after multiple news outlets reported that Vivek Ramaswamy stopped airing the controversial campaign advertisement featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother in Ohio. Credible reporting confirmed that the campaign took down the ad following bipartisan backlash.
Sources: Yahoo: ELECTION 2026: Vivek Ramaswamy stops airing ad featuring Dr. Amy Acton’s estranged mother, AP News: Vivek Ramaswamy's attack ad featuring opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother is off the air in Ohio, 10TV: Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother is no longer running in Ohio, The Columbus Dispatch: Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's mother stops airing in Ohio, Forbes: Vivek Ramaswamy Pulls Amy Acton Mother Ad After Bipartisan Backlash
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Backlash Grows Over Ramaswamy Ad
The chance of the ad being pulled rose after reports detailed growing bipartisan criticism and backlash against the campaign advertisement in Ohio. Articles published during this period highlighted that the controversy continued to draw intense scrutiny and debate from various experts and student organizations.
Sources: 10TV: DeWine declines to respond to Trump’s criticism, renews call for Ramaswamy to pull ad, The Lantern: Ohio State student organizations and experts weigh in on Vivek Ramaswamy advertisement featuring Amy Acton’s mother, CBC: Vivek Ramaswamy stands by ad featuring Amy Acton's mother despite bipartisan criticism in Ohio, NBC4 WCMH-TV: Ramaswamy defends attack ad targeting Acton as backlash grows, The Indian Express: Why Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Amy Acton’s mother has divided Republicans in Ohio
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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21 Oct 2026
Call to Withdraw Ramaswamy Ad
The market probability of the ad being pulled increased following growing controversy and criticism surrounding the advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother. Additionally, a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate in Ohio called on Vivek Ramaswamy to withdraw from the race over the ad.
Sources: AL.com: Ohio governor candidate makes $4 million move after controversial attack ad, Firstpost: Vivek Ramaswamy faces backlash over ad attacking rival Amy Acton. What’s the controversy?, 10TV: Ohio's Libertarian gubernatorial candidate calls on Ramaswamy to withdraw from race after Acton ad
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 59%, which means they saw about a 59 in 100 chance. That was up 18 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 30 Oct 2026, from 33% to 67%: Vivek Ramaswamy Pulls Controversial Campaign Ad. The probability of the market increased after reports emerged that Vivek Ramaswamy pulled his campaign advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign pulls its advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the campaign announces that it will stop airing the advertisement, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when the advertisement actually stops airing. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign pulls its advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The advertisement will be considered pulled if either of the following occurs within this market's timeframe: Vivek Ramaswamy or an authorized representative of his campaign publicly announces that the campaign has stopped, or will stop, airing the advertisement; or a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the campaign has pulled, withdrawn, or stopped airing the advertisement on television. Replacing the advertisement with a new or edited version that no longer features Amy Acton's mother will qualify. Editing the advertisement while it continues to feature Amy Acton's mother will not qualify. The following will not qualify: removal of the advertisement from social media or other online platforms while it continues to air on television; a reduction in spending or airtime that does not stop the advertisement from airing; the advertisement leaving the air because its previously scheduled ad buy has ended, unless the campaign or a consensus of credible reporting describes the advertisement as having been pulled or withdrawn; removal by a television station, platform, or court order rather than by the campaign; and the airing or removal of any advertisement by a third party not affiliated with the Ramaswamy campaign. If the campaign announces that it will stop airing the advertisement, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when the advertisement actually stops airing. A subsequent decision to resume airing the advertisement will not change a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Vivek Ramaswamy and his campaign, including official websites, verified social media accounts, interviews, and press conferences; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.