Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?
2 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
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What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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27 Oct 2026
Serbian Election Results Spur Market Movement
The price jumped after reports that the Serbian autocrat lost the election and the student movement won. Preliminary results of the parliamentary election were also released during this period as the victorious movement prepared to take power.
Sources: The Record from Recorded Future News: Serbian autocrat loses election following widespread reports of digital repression, 조선일보: Serbian Student List Ends 12-Year Pro-Russia, Pro-China Rule, Türkiye Today: Serbia’s students just won without a leader. Now who governs?, azərtac: Serbia releases preliminary results of parliamentary election, KRCG: Serbia's victorious student movement faces tough challenges as it prepares to take power
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Serbia Election Defeat Lowers Vladan Djokic's Chances
The chance of Vladan Djokic winning the next Serbian presidential election dropped from 26% to 13% after news emerged that the student-led protest movement won the recent election. Reports from sources like Reuters, the BBC, and OSW indicate that veteran ruler Vučić conceded defeat to the student-led movement, creating uncertainty in the upcoming political race.
Sources: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich: Serbian elections: students defeat Vučić, Agenzia Nova: After Vucic's defeat in Serbia, the presidential race opens, with uncertainties surrounding government and foreign policy, BBC: Serbia's veteran ruler Vučić concedes election to student-led protest movement
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 14% to 28%: Serbian Election Results Spur Market Movement. The price jumped after reports that the Serbian autocrat lost the election and the student movement won. Preliminary results of the parliamentary election were also released during this period as the victorious movement prepared to take power. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 2 May 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).