Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes at 0% on 2 Nov 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Xavier Bertrand will win the 2027 French presidential election. The market resolves based on the official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior or a consensus of credible reporting, including the outcome of any necessary runoff vote.
As the campaign intensifies, the French center-right faces internal divisions. Édouard Philippe, a prominent presidential hopeful, recently rejected a center-right primary proposed by Gabriel Attal and has faced questions in an embezzlement case.
The election is expected to take place around April 2027 under France's two-round voting system. Recent polling and commentary highlight a crowded field of potential contenders, including Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, alongside ongoing debates over the direction of the center-right.
Sources: France 24: French presidential hopeful Édouard Philippe quizzed in embezzlement case, Internazionale: French centrists’ feuding increases odds of Le Pen-Melenchon runoff, Reuters: French centrists' feuding increases odds of Le Pen-Melenchon runoff, Demokratis.co.id: Le Pen Leads French 2027 Polls as Mélenchon Gains Ground, France 24: French presidential candidate Édouard Philippe rejects centre-right primary, Le Monde.fr: French presidential election: Philippe rejects Attal's proposal for center-right primary, The Local France: Presidential election watch: Animals, books and the battle for the soul of the French centre-right
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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19 Apr 2027
First and Second Round Election Results
The official results of the first round and any subsequent runoff vote, reported by the French Ministry of the Interior, will directly determine the outcome of the market.
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Any time before the election
Center-Right Primary and Alliance Decisions
Developments regarding potential primaries or unity candidates on the center-right, following Édouard Philippe's rejection of Gabriel Attal's proposal, could shift support for candidates like Xavier Bertrand.
Source: France 24: French presidential candidate Édouard Philippe rejects centre-right primary, Le Monde.fr: French presidential election: Philippe rejects Attal's proposal for center-right primary, The Local France: Presidential election watch: Animals, books and the battle for the soul of the French centre-right
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Any time before the election
Legal Proceedings Involving Rivals
Ongoing investigations or legal developments concerning rival candidates, such as Édouard Philippe being quizzed in an embezzlement case, could alter the competitive landscape for the center-right.
Source: France 24: French presidential hopeful Édouard Philippe quizzed in embezzlement case
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Any time before the election
Polling and Coalition Shifts
Future opinion polls tracking the balance between Le Pen, Mélenchon, and centrist contenders could impact Bertrand's standing if center-right feuding continues or resolves.
Source: Internazionale: French centrists’ feuding increases odds of Le Pen-Melenchon runoff, Reuters: French centrists' feuding increases odds of Le Pen-Melenchon runoff, Demokratis.co.id: Le Pen Leads French 2027 Polls as Mélenchon Gains Ground
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Next French Presidential Election”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: First and Second Round Election Results (19 Apr 2027); Center-Right Primary and Alliance Decisions; Legal Proceedings Involving Rivals. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 19 Apr 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).