Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes at 1% on 28 Oct 2026, down 70 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 1 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the political party or coalition led by Yashar will secure the highest number of seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The outcome will be determined by the official seat count reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee, with tie-breaking rules based on total valid votes or alphabetical order if necessary.
As of October 28, 2026, vote counting is ongoing following the election held on October 27. Current reports indicate a tight race and a potential deadlock between the blocs led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, with no clear winner projected yet.
The election results remain uncertain as ballots continue to be tallied across the country. While both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have claimed momentum or victory, official results are still being processed to determine the final composition of the Knesset.
Sources: Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, Oman Observer: No clarity on Israel's next PM; Arab parties get 15 seats, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, The Economist: Binyamin Netanyahu’s bloc looks set to fall short in Israel’s election, New York Post: Netanyahu's Likud leads Israeli election count with 27% of vote as ballots continue to be tallied, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Gadi Eisenkot declares victory as bloc takes lead over Netanyahu's, despite deadlock, Plataforma Media: Israel: Eisenkot says he wants to form government and opposes new elections, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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30 Jun 2027
Market Resolution Deadline
If final election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market will automatically resolve to 'Other'.
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As final votes are tallied
Ballot Counting Progress
Continued counting of the remaining votes could alter the seat distribution between Netanyahu's bloc and rival camps, potentially changing whether Yashar wins the most seats.
Source: Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, New York Post: Netanyahu's Likud leads Israeli election count with 27% of vote as ballots continue to be tallied, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
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In the coming days
Official Results from Central Election Committee
The Central Election Committee's release of official results will establish the definitive seat count to determine the market outcome.
Source: Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election
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During post-election negotiations
Coalition Formation and Deadlock Resolution
Negotiations between rival camps and potential coalition alignments may clarify which party ultimately secures the greatest number of seats or leads the next government.
Source: Al Jazeera: Netanyahu, Eisenkot camps clash over Israel election projections, www.israelhayom.com: תוצאות הבחירות Israeli elections Netanyahu and Eisenkot face coalition deadlock, Haaretz: What Now? Israel's Three Post-Election Scenarios, Haaretz: Israel Election 2026 Over 70% of Votes Counted: Arab Parties at Historic High, Plataforma Media: Israel: Eisenkot says he wants to form government and opposes new elections
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
No Clear Winner in Israel Election
Following the Israeli legislative election, exit polls and early vote counts showed a stalemate with no clear winner or majority. Rival blocs each claimed a mandate, leaving the political future uncertain.
Sources: i24NEWS: Less than half of all votes have been counted in Israel's election; no clear majority so far | LIVE BLOG, WREG.com: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel’s election, The Times of Israel: Eisenkot and Netanyahu each vow to form next coalition, even as exit polls predict stalemate, Il Sole 24 ORE: Israeli elections, exit polls: no clear winner. It’s neck and neck between Eisenkot’s bloc and Netanyahu’s, The Independent: Israel exit polls show no clear winner in 2026 elections. What happens next?
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Yashar party opposes Likud bid to extend voting hours
During ongoing voting in the Israeli election, the Yashar party opposed a Likud bid to extend voting hours. Election authorities also stated there was no indication of systematic ballot tampering after complaints were lodged.
Sources: The Jewish Chronicle: ‘No indication’ of systematic ballot tampering, say Israeli election authorities after three parties lodge complaints, The Times of Israel: Eisenkot’s Yashar party opposes Likud bid to extend voting hours, Türkiye Today: Netanyahu’s Likud loses bid to extend voting as Israel turnout tops 74%
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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2 Oct 2026
Polls Show Narrowing Knesset Blocs Ahead of Election
The chance of Yashar winning the most seats fell after new polls showed the opposition leading the Netanyahu bloc with 53 seats to 51. Additionally, reports indicated that gaps are narrowing between the Knesset blocs as security issues take center stage.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Gaps narrow between Knesset blocs as security issues come to forefront of agenda, Anadolu Ajansı: Netanyahu bloc projected to win 51 seats in Oct. 27 elections, opposition 53: Poll, Yeni Şafak English: Israel poll shows Netanyahu bloc at 51 seats, opposition 53
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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1 Oct 2026
Polls Show Netanyahu's Bloc Leading Before Election
The chance of Yashar winning the most seats dropped after polls indicated that Netanyahu's bloc held an edge in the upcoming election. Additionally, the polls showed Likud tied for first place as voters worried about the final outcome.
Sources: The Times of Israel: ToI poll: Netanyahu’s bloc leads, Likud tied for 1st, as voters fret over election’s outcome, Haaretz: New poll: Opposition's boycott of Arab parties hands Netanyahu's bloc edge
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 70 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 68% to 1%: No Clear Winner in Israel Election. Following the Israeli legislative election, exit polls and early vote counts showed a stalemate with no clear winner or majority. Rival blocs each claimed a mandate, leaving the political future uncertain. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution Deadline (30 Jun 2027); Ballot Counting Progress; Official Results from Central Election Committee. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.