Iran, the ceasefire and Gulf oil
The US-Iran ceasefire, the blockade of Iranian ports, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Gulf oil routes.
US-Iran ceasefire odds rose, with the midterm ceasefire reaching 90%. Meanwhile, markets for military action against the Saudi oil pipeline shifted after Houthi attacks and subsequent Tehran summit hopes.
Written by AI from the prices and explanations on this page, checked automatically.
The markets
90% +10 this week
20% −4 this week
18% +2 this week
–
6% +2 this week
96% +14 this week
Chance of Yes on Polymarket over the last 30 days. Numbered dots are the moments below.
More markets in this story
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?2% −6 this week
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?35% −1 this week
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?0% −1 this week
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?99% +13 this week
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?36% −10 this week
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?–
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?–
Ended markets (1)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? ended 25 Oct 2026
How the story moved
Big price jumps across this story’s markets. When one piece of news moved several markets at once, it’s shown once, with every market it moved.
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27 Oct 2026
Oil Prices Slip Following Tehran Summit Hopes
2 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 60% → 48%
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 24% → 14%
The chance of military action against the Saudi oil pipeline dropped as oil prices slipped following a Tehran summit that revived hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough. Although Houthi strikes still capped losses, easing tensions contributed to the downward market movement.
This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.
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26 Oct 2026
Houthi Attacks on Saudi Pipeline Fail to Move Oil
The prediction market chance for a military action against the Saudi oil pipeline dropped even after reports that Houthi forces claimed strikes on the East-West oil pipeline. Analysts and news reports noted that oil prices fell or stayed steady despite the claims of attacks on Saudi Arabia's red sea oil lifeline. This reaction suggests traders may have doubted the severity or impact of the claimed strikes regarding the pipeline's operational status.
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26 Oct 2026
Houthi Attacks on Saudi Pipeline Raise Market Odds
6 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 26% → 44% Faded
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? 66% → 82% Held
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? 92% → 77% Faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? 86% → 70% Faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 62% → 54% Partly faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? 36% → 28% Faded
The prediction market probability rose after reports that Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed strikes and operations targeting Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline and energy sites, including locations near Yanbu. These claims raised concerns about potential impacts on the East-West oil pipeline.
Sources: UrduPoint: Houthis Claim Attacks On 3 Saudi Airports, Aramco Facilities And Oil Pipeline, Announce 7 Military Operations, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Houthis claim 'phases' of attacks on Saudi airports, oil pipelines, news.sbs.co.kr: Yemen's Houthi Rebels Claim Attacks on Riyadh Airport and Saudi Oil Pipeline, https://houseofsaud.com/: Houthis Claim Strikes on Rabigh Refinery and East-West Pipeline
This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.
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24 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
2 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 14% → 36% Held
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 44% → 59% Held
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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24 Oct 2026
Diplomatic Pressure Grows to Maintain U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? 76% → 84% Held
The probability that the U.S. and Iran ceasefire will continue increased after European and Middle Eastern ministers urged the United States to pursue diplomacy rather than new attacks. Additionally, analysts noted that despite rising tensions and threats, international officials continued pushing for peaceful resolutions during this window.
Sources: Al Jazeera: European, Middle East ministers urge US-Iran diplomacy, not new attacks
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23 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
2 markets moved together
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 39% → 70% Faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 25% → 14% Held
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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21 Oct 2026
Ceasefire Talks Stall as Iran Rejects U.S. Terms
6 markets moved together
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? 94% → 72% Faded
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 26% → 44% Held
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? 86% → 70% Partly faded
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? 80% → 64% Partly faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? 82% → 67% Partly faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? 46% → 34% Held
The chance of the ceasefire continuing dropped after reports emerged that Iran rejected the U.S. ceasefire offer over zero uranium enrichment demands. Additional reports indicated that despite ongoing talks, Iran remained determined to keep its uranium as regional war odds increased.
Sources: NewsCord: Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Over Zero Uranium Enrichment, Says Enriched Uranium Stays In Iran: how 9 outlets framed it, Al Jazeera: Iran determined to keep uranium amid increased war odds, flurry of meetings
This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.
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19 Oct 2026
US Strike on Iranian Naval Base
7 markets moved together
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? 84% → 44% Faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? 88% → 52% Faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? 92% → 59% Faded
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? 82% → 49% Faded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? 50% → 20% Faded
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 32% → 19% Held
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 50% → 41% Partly faded
The market probability for the ceasefire continuing dropped significantly after reports emerged that US forces struck the Konarak naval base in Iran, resulting in wounded personnel. Iran stated that US forces carried out the attack, raising concerns about a breakdown in the ceasefire.
Sources: Business Upturn: Iran says US forces struck Konarak naval base, two personnel reportedly wounded
This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.
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17 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
2 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 29% → 40% Faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 66% → 56% Held
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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15 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
2 markets moved together
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 32% → 19% Held
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 50% → 60% Partly faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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14 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
3 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 32% → 52% Partly faded
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 37% → 19% Partly faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 62% → 46% Faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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12 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
3 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 66% → 56% Faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 46% → 36% Held
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 31% → 22% Held
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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11 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
3 markets moved together
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 42% → 28% Held
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 51% → 66% Partly faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 52% → 43% Partly faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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10 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
2 markets moved together
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 40% → 20% Held
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 50% → 61% Faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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9 Oct 2026
US Ceasefire Prospects With Iran
3 markets moved together
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 12% → 30% Held
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 54% → 68% Held
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? 68% → 81% Partly faded
Reports indicated that the United States would not resume strikes on Iran before the midterms, according to statements by President Trump. Additionally, Iran and the US exchanged new proposals for negotiations.
Sources: DW.com: US will not resume strikes on Iran before midterms — Trump, Anadolu Ajansı: Iran and US exchanged new proposals for negotiations, Pezeshkian tells Putin
This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.
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7 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
3 markets moved together
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? 68% → 51% Faded
- Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? 50% → 36% Partly faded
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 24% → 16% Held
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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6 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 20% → 36% Partly faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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2 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 28% → 18% Partly faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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1 Oct 2026
Not explained yet
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 10% → 36% Partly faded
The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
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28 Sep 2026
Iran Resends Hormuz Reopening Proposal to US
3 markets moved together
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? 26% → 10% Held
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? 26% → 36% Faded
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? 34% → 43% Held
The price for the US ending the Iranian blockade increased following reports that Iran resent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to the United States. Meanwhile, Iran also ruled out new talks with the US after a rejection of its previous offer.
Sources: The New Arab: Iran rules out new US talks after Trump rejects Hormuz offer, bloomingbit: Iran Resends Hormuz Reopening Proposal to US, Rules Out Nuclear Talks
This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Coming up
Nothing dated on the calendar for this story yet.
Prices as of 2026-10-28 16:12 UTC, then live from Polymarket.