Israel's election and the next government

Who wins the most seats, whether any bloc reaches a majority, and who becomes prime minister.

Following Israel election results that raise questions about Netanyahu's future, Likud winning the most seats surged from 32% to 99%, while Yashar winning the most seats fell from 68% to 1%. Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of being the next prime minister rose from 24% to 44%, while Gadi Eizenkot's dropped from 61% to 34%.

Written by AI from the prices and explanations on this page, checked automatically.

The markets

Chance of Yes on Polymarket over the last 30 days. Numbered dots are the moments below.

More markets in this story

How the story moved

Big price jumps across this story’s markets. When one piece of news moved several markets at once, it’s shown once, with every market it moved.

  1. 28 Oct 2026

    Israel Election Results Raise Questions About Netanyahu's Future

    16 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The chance of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office early rose after exit polls and initial election results showed a deadlocked election and a harsh defeat for his bloc. Major reports highlighted that opponents declared a total collapse while his political future hung in the balance amid uncertain coalition math.

    Sources: Modern Diplomacy: Can Netanyahu Stay in Power After Israel’s Deadlocked Election?, The Sunday Guardian: Is This the End of Benjamin Netanyahu? Coalition Math, Key Players and Israel’s Uncertain Political Future After a Deadlocked Election Explained, International Business Times UK: Israel Election 2026: Yair Lapid Declares 'Total Collapse' After Netanyahu Bloc Suffers 'Harsh Defeat' in Exit Polls, Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, Knewz: Lapid declares ‘total collapse’ of Netanyahu’s bloc, FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul: Netanyahu's political future hangs in balance

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  2. 27 Oct 2026

    Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israel

    11 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The chance of Likud winning the most seats fell after exit polls revealed a knife-edge race with no clear winner. Major news outlets reported that exit polls showed the election was too close to call and left Benjamin Netanyahu's political future unclear.

    Sources: Newsweek: Israeli Exit Polls Reveal No Clear Winner in Knife-Edge Race, DW.com: Israel election: Exit polls show no clear winner, with Netanyahu's fate unclear

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  3. 26 Oct 2026

    Eizenkot Leads Polls Ahead of Israeli Election

    5 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    Recent polls and media coverage ahead of the 2026 Israeli election show former IDF chief Gadi Eizenkot emerging as a leading challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu. Major outlets reported on strong poll numbers and final campaign events for Eizenkot prior to the vote.

    Sources: NewsCord: Israeli Channel 12 Poll Shows Gadi Eizenkot Camp 52 Seats, Netanyahu Camp 50, Arab Parties 14, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu but Knesset deadlock looms, AOL.com: Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot emerges as Netanyahu’s leading election challenger, Time Magazine: Exclusive: The Former General Who Could End the Netanyahu Era, NewsCord: Gadi Eisenkot Holds Final Rally, Tells Supporters Netanyahu Must Go Home: how 45 outlets framed it

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  4. 24 Oct 2026

    Ra'am seat prediction market volatility

    4 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The probability of Ra'am winning exactly five seats decreased following reports of potential opposition alliances. These discussions regarding a coalition to challenge Netanyahu may have influenced market expectations for the party's electoral performance.

    Sources: France 24: To bring down Netanyahu, Arab-Israeli parties ready for opposition alliance

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  5. 24 Oct 2026

    High Court Ban on Real-Time Voter Tracking

    3 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The High Court ruled that polling station officials and party observers cannot transmit real-time voter data or track voter turnout on election day. This decision prevents political parties from monitoring live turnout updates to mobilize voters.

    Sources: Haaretz: Israel's High Court bars political parties from tracking voter turnout, The Times of Israel: High Court rules polling station officials can’t transmit voter data to parties on election day, The Jerusalem Post: Court rules party observers cannot send real-time voter data during elections

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  6. 22 Oct 2026

    Arab Voter Leverage Sparks Turnout Speculation

    Likely cause

    As Israelis head to the polls, reports emphasized that Arab parties could become kingmakers in the government and that high voter turnout would increase their political leverage. Articles highlighted that Arab Israelis make up about 22 percent of the population and that their participation could significantly impact the election outcome.

    Sources: Outlook India: Beyond The Ballot: How Arab Parties Could Influence Israel’s Next Government, Facebook: DW News. . As Israelis head to the polls, Arab parties could become kingmakers in the next coalition government. Arab Israelis make up around 22% of the total population. The more they vote, the greater their leverage. #dwcurrentaffairs

  7. 21 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Netanyahu Trailing Ahead of Election

    5 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The chance of the Netanyahu bloc winning dropped as new poll results indicated that Benjamin Netanyahu trails his rival, Gadi Eisenkot. Additionally, reports noted that Netanyahu's main election rival ruled out serving under him.

    Sources: Harici: Netanyahu trails Eisenkot in Israeli polls despite Trump backing, العربية: Netanyahu’s main election rival rules out serving under him

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  8. 20 Oct 2026

    Ra'am's Role as Potential Kingmaker in Israeli Elections

    5 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    Recent reports highlight the United Arab List (Ra'am) as a potential kingmaker in the upcoming Israeli elections. This increased focus on the party's influence in the election battle aligns with the shift in market sentiment regarding their seat count.

    Sources: Al Jazeera: The kingmakers who could determine Israel’s election, The Arab Weekly: Israel’s Arab minority emerges as potential kingmaker in election battle, Ratopati: Israel Election: Arab and Ultra-Orthodox Parties Could Be Kingmakers

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  9. 19 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Shifting Dynamics Ahead of Israel Election

    5 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    Ahead of the upcoming Knesset election, polls indicate that new blocs are leading while nearly one-third of voters remain undecided. Additionally, reports highlighted shifting alliances and developments among key parties in the race.

    Sources: Haaretz: Eisenkot bloc leads in new polls, still short of majority without Arab parties, The Jerusalem Post: Nearly one-third of Israeli voters undecided just days before Knesset election

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  10. 18 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Neither Bloc Securing Knesset Majority

    5 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The price dropped after polling data showed that neither major political bloc was able to reach a Knesset majority. Reports indicated that Gadi Eisenkot was leading Benjamin Netanyahu while both blocs struggled to secure the required seats.

    Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Blocs struggle to reach Knesset majority in polls, as Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu, شبكة يافا الإخبارية: Israeli Polls: Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu as Neither Bloc Secures a Knesset Majority

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  11. 16 Oct 2026

    Ra'am Seat Prediction Market Probability Declines

    3 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The probability of Ra'am winning exactly five seats decreased following reports highlighting the party's potential role as a kingmaker in the upcoming Israeli elections. Articles published on October 16 suggest that Arab-led parties may gain seats, which could shift expectations regarding their final parliamentary representation.

    Sources: SuaraGarut.ID: Arab Parties Gain Seats as Israeli Election Deadlock Deepens, PBS: Arab-led parties could decide the Israeli election, if anyone would partner with them, The New York Times: The Arab Kingmaker in Israel’s Election Who Wants a Partnership With Jews

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  12. 16 Oct 2026

    Israel Begins Voting Abroad for 2026 Election

    4 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The chance of high voter turnout increased as voting officially opened for the 2026 Israeli legislative election with the casting of the first ballots at diplomatic missions abroad. This initial voting activity marked the official beginning of the electoral process.

    Sources: The Times of Israel: First Knesset election ballots cast as voting opens at Israel’s missions abroad, The Times of Israel: First ballots of 2026 election are cast as voting opens at Israel’s diplomatic missions abroad

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  13. 15 Oct 2026

    Netanyahu's party expected to lose Israel election in polls

    7 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The chance of the Netanyahu bloc winning the election declined following a new poll indicating that Benjamin Netanyahu's party is expected to lose the upcoming October 27 elections. Additional reports noted that Netanyahu fears a war with Iran could hand the election to opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot.

    Sources: Nacionale: Poll: Netanyahu's Party Expected to Lose October 27 Elections in Israel, The Jerusalem Post: Israel election: Benjamin Netanyahu fears war with Iran could hand election to Gadi Eisenkot

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  14. 11 Oct 2026

    Coalition Gains Ground in Israel Election Polls

    2 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The Netanyahu bloc saw its chances rise following a poll indicating that the opposing bloc's slump contributed to coalition gains. Additionally, reports highlighted vote-sharing deals signed by major coalition parties ahead of the election.

    Sources: Haaretz: Israel election poll: Eisenkot bloc continues slump as coalition gains ground, Haaretz: Shas, United Torah Judaism sign vote-sharing deal ahead of Israeli election

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  15. 11 Oct 2026

    Prediction market chance of strikes in four countries drops

    2 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The market chance decreased as recent reports focused on attacks in Gaza, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon, without indicating a broader expansion to four distinct countries. Articles highlighted developments such as a Houthi attack on a Saudi airport and drone strikes impacting Lebanon and Gaza.

    Sources: Reuters: Israeli strikes kill five people in Gaza, medics say, WREG.com: Airport in the Saudi capital is attacked again, and other Mideast developments, Al Jazeera: Israeli drone attack wounds six in Lebanon near Syria border, The New York Times: At Least 12 Killed and 300 Injured in Houthi Attack on Saudi Airport, Al Jazeera: Saudi Arabia says 12 killed, 300 wounded in Houthi attack on Riyadh airport

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  16. 10 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Gains for Netanyahu Bloc Parties

    2 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The chance of the Netanyahu bloc winning increased following a poll showing that Jewish supremacist parties are gaining popularity among first-time voters. No other direct explanations were provided in the published reports.

    Sources: PressTV: Poll shows Jewish supremacist parties gain popularity among first-time voters

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  17. 7 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Netanyahu's Bloc Ahead Ahead of Elections

    Likely cause

    Recent opinion polls show that Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc is leading its rival bloc by five seats ahead of the upcoming election. However, the polls indicate that neither side has secured the majority needed to easily form a government.

    Sources: Haaretz: Poll: Netanyahu bloc tops Eisenkot's by 5 seats, neither secure majority

  18. 5 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Eisenkot Bloc Leading Netanyahu

    5 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The price dropped following the publication of new poll results showing that the Eisenkot-led bloc holds a lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the polls indicated the bloc still falls short of a majority without the support of Arab parties.

    Sources: Haaretz: Israeli elections 2026 • Poll: Eisenkot bloc leads Netanyahu but falls short without Arab parties

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  19. 2 Oct 2026

    Netanyahu gains in polls amid security events

    2 markets moved together

    Likely cause

    The chance of Likud winning the most seats rose after reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was capitalizing on recent security events and a high-profile meeting to gain ground in election polls. Additional coverage discussed how security issues came to the forefront of the political agenda.

    Sources: Al-Monitor: How Netanyahu is capitalizing on MBZ meeting, FlyDubai attack to gain in election polls, The Jerusalem Post: Gaps narrow between Knesset blocs as security issues come to forefront of agenda

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

  20. 1 Oct 2026

    Polls Show Netanyahu's Bloc Leading Before Election

    Likely cause

    The chance of Yashar winning the most seats dropped after polls indicated that Netanyahu's bloc held an edge in the upcoming election. Additionally, the polls showed Likud tied for first place as voters worried about the final outcome.

    Sources: The Times of Israel: ToI poll: Netanyahu’s bloc leads, Likud tied for 1st, as voters fret over election’s outcome, Haaretz: New poll: Opposition's boycott of Arab parties hands Netanyahu's bloc edge

  21. 29 Sep 2026

    Security Detail Denied for Gadi Eisenkot

    3 markets moved together

    Confirmed cause

    The chance of Gadi Eisenkot becoming the next prime minister fell after reports emerged that the Shin Bet will not provide him with a security detail, defying an advisory committee. This decision came despite an earlier report to the contrary.

    Sources: Haaretz: Defying advisory committee, Shin Bet won't provide security for Gadi Eisenkot, The Times of Israel: Shin Bet won’t provide Eisenkot with security detail, despite earlier report to contrary

    This write-up is for the clearest of these moves. Each market’s page explains its own move.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Coming up

  1. 4 Nov 2026

    IL Israel: official election results due

    The Central Elections Committee publishes the final Knesset results by 4 Nov. The exit polls showed no clear winner, so the final seat count decides who President Herzog can task with forming a government.

  2. 10 Nov 2026

    IL Israel: new Knesset's first sitting (deadline)

    The 26th Knesset must hold its first sitting within 14 days of election day, so by 10 Nov.

  3. 11 Nov 2026

    IL Israel: President Herzog must name who forms the government (deadline)

    Within 7 days of the official results the President consults the parties and gives one MK the task of forming a government (by 11 Nov if results come on 4 Nov). The candidate gets 28 days, extendable by 14. It need not be the leader of the largest party.

Full calendar

Prices as of 2026-10-28 17:02 UTC, then live from Polymarket.