US midterms 2026

The markets

Chance of Yes on Polymarket over the last 30 days. Numbered dots are the moments below.

More markets in this story

• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House1% no change this week
• Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?0% no change this week
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?32% −4 this week
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?4% +1 this week
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?68% +4 this week
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?96% −1 this week
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?70% no change this week
• Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?30% no change this week
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?2% −1 this week
• Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?28% +10 this week
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?6% +2 this week
• Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?72% −10 this week
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?0% −2 this week
• Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?76% −4 this week
• Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?24% +4 this week
• Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?–
• Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?–
• Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?–
• Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?–
• Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?–
• Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?–
• Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?–
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?–
• Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?–
• Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?–
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?–
• Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?–

How the story moved

Big price jumps across this story’s markets. When one piece of news moved several markets at once, it’s shown once, with every market it moved.

1. 228 Oct 2026

   Trump Holds Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas

   • Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas? 30% → 92%

   Likely cause

   The prediction market odds shifted after Donald Trump held his scheduled midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas. News outlets reported extensively on his appearance and remarks during the event.

   Sources: KLBK | KAMC | EverythingLubbock.com: President Trump, Ken Paxton hold midterm rally in Lubbock, newswest9.com: Trump rallies in Lubbock in last campaign push ahead of Midterm elections, News Radio 1200 WOAI: President Trump Caps Off Texas Rally Two-Step In Lubbock, Announces New Energy Policy, KCBD: President Trump endorsees Texas candidates at Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Trump rallies 'red wall' for GOP candidates in Lubbock, West Texas

2. 127 Oct 2026

   Trump Rally in Lubbock, Texas

   • Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas? 24% → 38%

   Likely cause

   The chance of the market resolving to yes increased as media outlets began reporting on Donald Trump's upcoming appearance in Texas. Articles noted that Trump was holding a midterm rally in Lubbock on the same day.

   Sources: KCBD: Lubbock City Council cancels scheduled meeting, The Hill: Trump doubles down in Texas, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Is Lubbock a battleground? Why Trump and Talarico are visiting the same day, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Lubbock City Council cancels meeting ahead of President Trump visit, New York Daily News: Trump and Talarico hold dueling rallies in deep-red Texas city

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Coming up

1. 3 Nov 2026

   US US midterm elections

   All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot.

Full calendar