About predictionwave
predictionwave shows what prediction markets think will happen, and why the odds just moved.
What it is
A prediction market turns a question, like “Will party X win the election?”, into a price. That price is the market’s rough estimate of the chance. When the price jumps, people want to know why. predictionwave focuses on political markets and keeps a permanent, dated record of every big jump, together with an explanation, the sources behind it, and what happened afterwards.
New to this? Start with How prediction markets work.
What you will find here
- Market pages: live odds, a chart with every big jump marked, background context, and what could move the price next.
- Calendar: economic and political events, linked to the markets they could move.
- Stories: ongoing storylines followed across several markets.
- Elections: upcoming votes and the markets around them.
- Did it hold?: what happened to each big jump 24 hours and 7 days later.
How the write-ups are made
- Our software picks the most active political markets and pulls their price history.
- Plain code, not AI, detects a jump: a move of 8 points or more within 6 hours.
- It searches for news published around that time.
- An AI system writes a short explanation using only the articles it was given, and cites them.
- Automated checks reject citations that do not exist or that were published too late to explain the move. If no relevant news is found, the page says “No news found” instead of guessing.
Each jump gets a label: Confirmed (a source published before the move ended supports the cause), Likely, or No news found.
AI and human oversight
Sections written by AI are labelled as such. They are generated and published automatically, and we check samples regularly, but we do not read every write-up before it goes live. Mistakes can happen. That is why every explanation links to its sources, and why you should read them before you rely on anything. This is information, not financial advice.
Where the data comes from
- Prices, volumes and charts: Polymarket.
- News: articles found through Google News search, linked in each explanation.
- Economic calendar: a public weekly economic-calendar feed (ForexFactory), plus elections, summits and other dates we add by hand.
Independence and funding
predictionwave is independent. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by or paid by Polymarket, Kalshi or any other platform. At the time of writing we do not earn money from links to them and do not accept payment for coverage. If that changes, we will say so here and clearly mark affected links.
Corrections
If something is wrong, tell us. Email [email protected] with the page address and what you think is wrong, ideally with a source. We will review it and fix it where appropriate. More on the Contact page.