Not financial advice

predictionwave shows prediction market prices and explains why they move. It is information, not financial advice.

Last updated: 28 October 2026

Information only

Everything on predictionwave, including prices, charts, context, “what could move it next”, price-jump explanations, calendar entries and stories, is general information. We do not know your finances, goals or circumstances, so nothing here is personal advice. We are not a broker, an exchange, an investment adviser or a regulated financial service, and you cannot place a trade on this site. The Yes and No buttons take you to a third-party platform.

Risks of prediction markets

• You can lose everything you put in. A contract that resolves against you pays nothing.
• The price is not a guarantee. A price of 63¢ is the market’s rough estimate of the chance, not a fact. Prices can be wrong, especially in small markets with few traders.
• Markets can be hard to exit. Some markets have few buyers and sellers, so you may not be able to sell when you want, or only at a poor price.
• The written rules decide the outcome. Two markets that sound the same can resolve differently because of one word, one source or one deadline. Always read the original rules on the platform before you trade.
• Markets can be resolved in unexpected ways, delayed, disputed or cancelled.
• Platform and account risk. Trading happens on third-party platforms with their own terms, fees and risks.

Our beginner guide explains the basics. It does not remove these risks.

AI-written explanations

Many sections on this site are written by an AI system from news articles our software finds automatically. Each one is labelled. They can be wrong, incomplete or out of date, and they can miss the real reason a price moved. We run automated checks, for example that every cited source exists and was published in the right time window, and we spot-check the output, but we do not review every write-up before it appears.

Our confidence labels (“Confirmed”, “Likely”, “No news found”) describe how well the linked sources support an explanation. They are not a guarantee that the explanation is true. A price can also move because of something no article reports, such as one large order. Click the sources and judge for yourself.

Data and timing

Prices, volumes and charts come from Polymarket and other third parties and may be delayed, incomplete or wrong. The price you see here may differ from the price available on the platform when you trade. Calendar events come from a public economic-calendar feed and from a list we keep by hand. Dates, times (shown in UTC) and outcomes can change or contain mistakes. Verify anything important with an official source.

Past moves do not predict future ones

Our “Did it hold?” page and the price-jump history show what happened to past moves. That is history, not a forecast. A jump that held before may not hold next time.

Legality is your responsibility

Whether you may use a prediction market depends on where you live and on the contract. Some countries or regions restrict or prohibit prediction markets, or certain kinds of contract, and platforms may block users in some places. We do not tell you whether it is legal or allowed for you. Check the rules where you live and the platform’s own terms before you trade.

We are independent

predictionwave is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Polymarket, Kalshi or any other platform. Their names, logos and data belong to them. See About for how we are funded.

Political coverage

Many markets here are about elections, politicians and governments. Showing or explaining a market is not an endorsement of any candidate, party, government or outcome, and a price is not a statement of what we want to happen.

Where to get advice

If you are thinking about trading, speak to a qualified, independent financial adviser, and to a lawyer or tax professional where relevant. If trading is causing you stress or harm, free confidential support is available from services in your country.

See also our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Questions: [email protected].