Did it hold?
When a prediction market jumps, does the new price stick, or does it drift back? We check every big jump we track a day later and a week later.
116 of 275 big price jumps were still there a day later. After a week, 68 of 165 still held.
After 24 hours
116 held, 71 partly faded, 88 faded
After 7 days
68 held, 28 partly faded, 69 faded
Held 70% or more of the move still there Partly faded 30 to 70% Faded less than 30%
Which jumps hold
A percentage appears once a group has at least 20 checked jumps. Below that, the counts are too small to mean much.
By the cause we found
| Jumps | Checked | After 24 hours | After 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed cause | 20 | 5 held, 11 partly faded, 4 faded 25% held |
2 held, 2 partly faded, 4 faded Too few to call |
| Likely cause | 131 | 59 held, 25 partly faded, 47 faded 45% held |
19 held, 10 partly faded, 27 faded 34% held |
| No news found | 19 | 6 held, 8 partly faded, 5 faded Too few to call |
7 held, 2 partly faded, 5 faded Too few to call |
| Not explained yet | 105 | 46 held, 27 partly faded, 32 faded 44% held |
40 held, 14 partly faded, 33 faded 46% held |
By direction
| Jumps | Checked | After 24 hours | After 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up moves | 130 | 48 held, 36 partly faded, 46 faded 37% held |
23 held, 9 partly faded, 43 faded 31% held |
| Down moves | 145 | 68 held, 35 partly faded, 42 faded 47% held |
45 held, 19 partly faded, 26 faded 50% held |
By size
| Jumps | Checked | After 24 hours | After 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 to 14 points | 189 | 84 held, 48 partly faded, 57 faded 44% held |
49 held, 16 partly faded, 51 faded 42% held |
| 15 to 24 points | 70 | 29 held, 19 partly faded, 22 faded 41% held |
17 held, 10 partly faded, 12 faded 44% held |
| 25 points or more | 16 | 3 held, 4 partly faded, 9 faded Too few to call |
2 held, 2 partly faded, 6 faded Too few to call |
Biggest jumps of the last 30 days
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28 Oct
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Likud emerges as largest party in Israeli election
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?Trump Holds Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?Netanyahu Bloc Leads in Early Results
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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25 Oct
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?Exit Polls Show Narrow Lead for Iotova
A day later Held A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Israeli Election Results Create Uncertainty
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Joint List Seat Projections Shift in Election Results
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Joint List Surges in Israel Election Predictions
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Netanyahu Claims Victory and Leads Early Vote Counts
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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28 Oct
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Exit Polls Show Stalemate in Israeli Election
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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27 Oct
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Israeli Election Turnout Surpasses Threshold
A day later Too early to tell A week later Too early to tell
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19 Oct
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?US Strike on Iranian Naval Base
A day later Faded at 80% A week later Faded at 86%
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5 Oct
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Joint List's Election Chances Drop
A day later Held at 4% A week later Held at 3%
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14 Oct
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No Direct News Explains Voter Turnout Drop
A day later Partly faded at 38% A week later Partly faded at 36%
How we check
A jump is a move of at least 8 points within about 6 hours. We look at the price 24 hours and 7 days after the jump ended and measure how much of the move is left. A jump from 30% to 50% that sits at 45% a day later kept 75% of the move, so it held.
Jumps to nearly 0% or 100% are left out: those are usually the market settling once the result is known, not a reaction to news. This page describes what happened to past prices. It is not a prediction and not financial advice.
Tracking since 28 Sep 2026. 329 jumps found in total, 275 checked after 24 hours. Prices from Polymarket.