Stories

Prediction markets grouped by the story they belong to, with every big move across them and what’s coming next.

1. Iran, the ceasefire and Gulf oil

   US-Iran ceasefire odds rose, with the midterm ceasefire reaching 90%. Meanwhile, markets for military action against the Saudi oil pipeline shifted after Houthi attacks and subsequent Tehran summit hopes.

   Latest move, 27 Oct 2026 Oil Prices Slip Following Tehran Summit Hopes

   13 open markets, 20 big moves tracked

2. Israel's election and the next government

   Following Israel election results that raise questions about Netanyahu's future, Likud winning the most seats surged from 32% to 99%, while Yashar winning the most seats fell from 68% to 1%. Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of being the next prime minister rose from 24% to 44%, while Gadi Eizenkot's dropped from 61% to 34%.

   Latest move, 28 Oct 2026 Israel Election Results Raise Questions About Netanyahu's Future

   24 open markets, 21 big moves tracked

3. US midterms 2026

   Markets for the 2026 US midterms remained mostly steady this week, with Democrats holding a 92% chance to control the House and a 66% chance to control the Senate. The biggest movement occurred on a market for Trump to say "Two Percent" at a Lubbock rally, which surged from 30% to 92% following his Lubbock rally.

   Latest move, 28 Oct 2026 Trump Holds Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas

   33 open markets, 2 big moves tracked