Economy and finance

Prediction markets on the Fed, inflation, jobs, recession, tariffs and big companies, with every big move explained from the news.

1. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

   • ≥3.0%100%+35 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 US Trade Deficit Widens Before GDP Report

2. Christine Lagarde out as ECB president by...?

   • December 31, 2026100%+66 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 ECB President Lagarde to Step Down

3. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

   • SpaceX54%−14 this week
   • Anthropic46%+19 this week
   • Kraken0%no change this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 SpaceX Share Price Movement Amid Anthropic IPO News

4. What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

   • $1.25T–$1.5T21%+8 this week
   • <$1T19%−8 this week
   • $1.75T–$2.0T13%−2 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Anthropic Files For IPO

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

   • 25 bps increase85%+24 this week
   • No change14%−20 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Australia Inflation Jumps, Raising Rate Hike Expectations

6. STRC hits $100 by…

   • December 3182%+7 this week
   • October 3132%+17 this week

   Latest explained move, 26 Oct 2026 STRC Stock Dips Following Buyback News

7. Anthropic IPO by __?

   • December 31, 202695%+9 this week
   • November 30, 202688%+16 this week
   • October 31, 20260%no change this week

   Latest explained move, 26 Oct 2026 Anthropic Files IPO Prospectus

8. What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

   • $1.75–$2.00T28%−9 this week

   Latest explained move, 26 Oct 2026 Anthropic Files For Blockbuster IPO

9. Fed Decision in January?

   • No change67%+7 this week
   • 25 bps increase30%−8 this week
   • 50+ bps decrease1%no change this week

   Latest explained move, 22 Oct 2026 Fed Interest Rate Expectations Shift

10. Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

    • No change82%+13 this week

    Latest explained move, 21 Oct 2026 Banxico Expected to Hold Rates According to Survey

11. Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

    • Hike–Pause–Hike78%+7 this week
    • Hike–Pause–Pause21%+3 this week

    Latest explained move, 16 Oct 2026 Fed Chair Warsh Remarks Affect Rate Expectations

12. Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

    • Another Fed rate hike in 2026?78%−3 this week

    Latest explained move, 16 Oct 2026 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Offers No Rate Signals

13. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

    • No change100%+4 this week
    • 25 bps increase0%−3 this week
    • 50+ bps increase0%no change this week

    Latest explained move, 6 Oct 2026 ECB Prediction Market Moves After Recent News

14. Bank of England decision in November?

    • 25 bps increase98%+1 this week
    • No change1%−1 this week
    • 50+ bps increase0%−1 this week

    Latest explained move, 6 Oct 2026 No Matching News Found for Bank of England Rates

15. Fed Decision in December?

    • 25 bps increase78%−1 this week
    • No change20%+2 this week
    • 25 bps decrease0%−1 this week

    Latest explained move, 2 Oct 2026 Fed Officials Suggest Caution on Rate Moves

16. Bank of Japan Decision in October?

    • No change100%+2 this week
    • 25 bps increase0%−1 this week
    • 50+ bps increase0%−1 this week

17. Fed rate cut by...?

    • December 2026 Meeting3%no change this week

18. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

    • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?12%no change this week

19. US recession by end of 2026?

    • US recession by end of 2026?6%−1 this week

20. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

    • 0 (0 bps)97%no change this week
    • 10 (250 bps)0%no change this week
    • 11 (275 bps)0%no change this week

21. Will GameStop acquire eBay?

    • Will GameStop acquire eBay?6%−1 this week

Odds from Polymarket, updated about every hour. Markets that only follow a price level (stock indexes, crypto, gold) are left out, because they move with the price rather than with news.