Politics

Prediction markets on elections, wars, ceasefires and world leaders, with every big move explained from the news.

1. Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

   • Gadi Eizenkot59%−1 this week
   • Benjamin Netanyahu39%+6 this week

   Latest explained move, 29 Oct 2026 Netanyahu's Chances Drop Amid Israel Election Deadlock

2. Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

   • 10-1192%+71 this week
   • 12+7%+5 this week

   Latest explained move, 29 Oct 2026 Joint List Seat Chances Fall as Election Deadlocks

3. Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

   • 8+60%+53 this week
   • 739%+33 this week
   • 64%−20 this week
   • 50%−54 this week

   Latest explained move, 29 Oct 2026 Ra'am Seat Projections Shift in Israeli Election

4. Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

   • Together99%+16 this week
   • Joint List1%no change this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israel Election

5. Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

   • 6-791%+54 this week
   • 8-97%−22 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Otzma Knesset Seat Odds Drop Amid Election Results

6. Los Angeles Mayoral Election

   • Karen Bass56%no change this week
   • Nithya Raman43%no change this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Polls Show Tightening Race in Los Angeles Mayoral Election

7. NC-09 House Election Winner

   • Richard Hudson (R)68%+15 this week
   • Richard Ojeda (D)32%−17 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Democratic Party Odds Rise in North Carolina Midterms

8. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

   • Benjamin Netanyahu46%+16 this week
   • Gadi Eizenkot23%−25 this week
   • Naftali Bennett4%−11 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Netanyahu's Bloc Leads in Israel's Election Count

9. Next leader out of power before 2027?

   • None before 202769%+22 this week
   • Netanyahu - Israel PM14%−20 this week
   • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea0%−4 this week

   Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Netanyahu's Political Standing Stabilizes Following Election Deadlock

10. Israeli Legislative Election Winner

    • Likud99%+69 this week
    • Together0%no change this week
    • Yashar0%−69 this week

    Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Likud Leads Israeli Election Count

11. Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

    • Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?100%+57 this week

    Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Netanyahu Bloc Leads in Early Results

12. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

    • 25-2998%+78 this week
    • 30-341%−6 this week
    • 20-240%−42 this week
    • 35+0%−1 this week

    Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Likud emerges as largest party in Israeli election

13. Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

    • Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?1%−13 this week

    Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Israel Election Exit Polls Show No Clear Majority

14. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

    • Radomir Saičić24%+23 this week
    • Ilija Srdanović17%−9 this week
    • Aleksandar Vučić3%−64 this week

    Latest explained move, 28 Oct 2026 Serbian Election Defeat Sparks Prime Minister Speculation

15. Netanyahu out by...?

    • December 3120%−21 this week

    Latest explained move, 27 Oct 2026 Netanyahu's Fate Hangs in the Balance After Election

16. France declares state of emergency by...?

    • December 317%−6 this week
    • October 311%−6 this week

    Latest explained move, 26 Oct 2026 Macron Rules Out State of Emergency Amid Protests

17. US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

    • US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?94%+23 this week

    Latest explained move, 26 Oct 2026 Oil Prices Fall on Ceasefire Proposal

18. US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

    • October 28100%+19 this week
    • October 3197%+24 this week
    • November 3039%no change this week

    Latest explained move, 25 Oct 2026 US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall Amid Rising Tensions

19. Taipei Mayor Election Winner

    • Chiang Wan-an66%+2 this week
    • Puma Shen34%−3 this week
    • Kuo Hsi0%no change this week

    Latest explained move, 25 Oct 2026 Puma Shen's Mayoral Campaign Developments

20. Next Prime Minister of Spain?

    • Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%−1 this week
    • Pedro Sánchez11%−4 this week
    • Santiago Abascal2%no change this week

    Latest explained move, 5 Oct 2026 Pedro Sánchez Calls Snap Election in Spain

21. US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

    • December 3140%+7 this week
    • November 3028%+5 this week
    • October 312%−5 this week

    Latest explained move, 28 Sep 2026 US-Iran Talks Continue Through Mediators

22. Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

    • Democrats Sweep67%−1 this week
    • Republicans Sweep6%−1 this week
    • D Senate, R House1%no change this week

23. Iran leadership change by...?

    • June 30, 202732%+9 this week
    • December 3114%+2 this week
    • October 310%−3 this week

24. Putin out as President of Russia by...?

    • June 30, 20279%−1 this week
    • December 31, 20262%no change this week

25. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

    • March 31, 202735%−2 this week
    • December 3117%−4 this week
    • October 311%−2 this week

26. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

    • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?0%−1 this week

27. Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

    • Bernie Sanders1%no change this week
    • Chelsea Clinton1%no change this week
    • Oprah Winfrey0%no change this week

28. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

    • Byron Donalds0%no change this week
    • John Thune0%no change this week
    • Mike Pence0%no change this week

29. Alaska Senate Election Winner

    • Mary Peltola70%−4 this week
    • Sen. Dan Sullivan29%+3 this week

30. Presidential Election Winner 2028

    • Kim Kardashian0%no change this week
    • LeBron James0%no change this week
    • Tim Walz0%no change this week

31. Next French Presidential Election

    • Mathilde Panot0%no change this week
    • Olivier Faure0%no change this week
    • Ségolène Royal0%no change this week

32. California Governor Election Winner

    • Xavier Becerra98%+1 this week
    • Steve Hilton2%−1 this week
    • Tom Steyer0%no change this week

33. Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

    • Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?99%no change this week

34. Which party will win the House in 2026?

    • Democratic Party93%no change this week
    • Republican Party7%no change this week

35. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

    • Democratic Party68%no change this week
    • Republican Party33%no change this week

36. Florida Governor Election Winner

    • Byron Donalds (R) 76%−4 this week
    • David Jolly (D)24%+4 this week

37. Florida Senate Election Winner

    • Ashley Moody (R)91%no change this week
    • Angie Nixon (D)10%+1 this week

38. Kansas Senate Election Winner

    • Roger Marshall (R)55%−6 this week
    • Adam Hamilton (D)46%+7 this week

39. Michigan Senate Election Winner

    • Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%+3 this week
    • Mike Rogers (R)28%−1 this week

40. Ohio Senate Election Winner

    • Sherrod Brown (D)69%−2 this week
    • Jon Husted (R)32%+4 this week

41. South Carolina Senate Election Winner

    • Darline Graham Nordone (R)72%−9 this week
    • Annie Andrews (D)28%+8 this week

42. Texas Senate Election Winner

    • James Talarico (D)69%+1 this week
    • Ken Paxton (R)32%−1 this week

43. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

    • Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?4%−2 this week

44. Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

    • 526%+2 this week
    • 541%−2 this week
    • 550%−1 this week

45. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

    • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%+2 this week

Odds from Polymarket, updated about every hour.